• Home
  • my Blog
  • for Buyers
    • Buying on Bainbridge
    • Home Buyer Relocation Packet
  • for Sellers
  • the Community
    • the Community
    • Schools
    • Neighborhoods
    • Winslow
    • Bainbridge Island Ferry Commute
    • Recreation
    • Stay & Eat
    • Bainbridge Island Resources
  • about Me
  • just Sold
  • email Me

Housing Prices? Where are they Going? Let’s Look at Where They’ve Been

  • Home
  • my Blog
  • Market Trends on Bainbridge Island
  • Housing Prices? Where are they Going? Let’s Look at Where They’ve Been
Local Farms Still Offer Bounty for Fall
October 12, 2008
Foreclosures on Bainbridge Island
Current Foreclosure Rate in Washington Not as Bad as 2002
October 25, 2008
Show all
October 19, 2008
Categories
  • Market Trends on Bainbridge Island
  • Real Estate Business
Tags
  • Bainbridge Island Housing Market
  • buy or rent
  • Seattle Housing Market
  • Standard and Poor's
Housing data on Bainbridge Island - Jen Pells Agent

Data: Standard & Poor’s

Everyone who owns a home or is thinking of buying a home is watching the housing market very closely. We can not predict the future, but, educated guesses can be made by looking back at history. I made this chart up using information from the Standard and Poor’s Index. It is Seattle specific.

Basically, this chart illustrates the rate of increase in home prices since 1990. Back in the 90’s the purple bar illustrates that from January 1990 to January 1997 housing prices increased an average of 1.5% per year. Very sane and slow. In the late 90’s, when we bought our first home, things started to pick up. The green bar shows that from February 1997 to January 2004 housing prices rose at a rate of 6.6% per year. In 2004, prices started to go crazy. The blue bar illustrates that from February 2004 to July 2007 housing prices rose at an average of 21.3% per year. Homes quickly became out of reach for many as housing prices shot up, while salaries jogged along at their same old rate. Affordable housing slipped away.

The shift started at summer’s end in 2007. The red bar shows that in August 2007 to June 2008 housing prices declined at -19.1% per year. It looks a lot like a free fall. When will it end? To answer that question with any kind of logic, we need to look at the rate of increases before the fall. On the chart, the bars also have lines that are their same color. The lines are an extrapolation of the increase rate.

So, we want to look at where this current drop will meet back, with the older, slower, saner, rate of increases. Our current rate of decline will meet back with the 6.6% rate of increase around April of 2009. Things could hook up there and housing could jog steadily along at the 6.6% rate of increase from then on. Or, prices may continue to drop. The current rate of decline will reach the 1.5% rate of increase around July of 2012.

Historically, the purple bar and the green bar represent basically, the same amount of time in years. My educated prediction is that prices will stop dropping somewhere between the 6.6% and the 1.5%, likely in 2010.

Should you wait until then to buy or sell? Like I have said in earlier posts, you have to look at all things considered. First, your price range. Drops are more significant in some ranges versus others. Are you renting? Are you spending/losing $30K a year on rent? And you have to look at income tax deductions. If you are renting, you are not able to deduct your mortgage interest. For many that is also $25-30K a year in deductions off you income. I know that is huge for us.

To answer your own personal question you have to look at all your considerations. I know that right now, the buyers have a lot of elbow room in the market. A lot of selection, a lot of power. As the tide turns, when prices stop dropping (right now they actually have, on the chart, the line has leveled out over the past two months) the climate of the market will change, likely to a level market, where it won’t truly be either a buyer’s or a seller’s market. We bought both our houses in a seller’s market. I know which market I’d like to shop in next time.

Related posts

February 3, 2023

Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023


Read more
811 Village Circle NW Sold on Bainbridge Island in 2022
January 14, 2023

My Top 10 Homes on Bainbridge Island | 2022


Read more
11711 Two Creeks Road Sold by Jen Pells Windermere Bainbridge
January 27, 2022

My Top 10 Homes on Bainbridge Island | 2021


Read more

Search

Subscribe to my blog by email

Latest from my Blog

  • New to Market 6345 NE Buckskin Ln
  • Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2023
  • My Top 10 Homes on Bainbridge Island | 2022
  • Bainbridge Island 2023 Real Estate Market Predictions
  • Jen’s 2022 Sales Portfolio

Tags

Active Listings Bainbridge Island Bainbridge agent Bainbridge Buyer's Agent Bainbridge homes bainbridge housing market 2009 bainbridge island Bainbridge Island Agent Bainbridge Island Buyer's agent Bainbridge Island Farmer's Market bainbridge island homes Bainbridge Island Housing Market Bainbridge Island Little League Bainbridge Island Neighborhoods Bainbridge Island public school Bainbridge Island Real Estate Bainbridge Island Real Estate Market Bainbridge Island Realtor Bainbridge Island Relocation Bainbridge Island Relocation Expert Bainbridge Island Top Buyers Agent Bainbridge Real Estate Best Bainbridge Agent Best Bainbridge Broker Best Bainbridge Buyer's Agent Best bainbridge island agent Best Bainbridge Island buyer's agent Buying a home on Bainbridge Life on Bainbridge Island Living on Bainbridge Island Moving to Bainbridge Moving to Bainbridge Island Neighborhoods on Bainbridge Island New Listing on Bainbridge Island new listings on bainbridge island New to Bainbridge Island Parks on Bainbridge Island Real estate on Bainbridge Island Recent sales on Bainbridge Island Relocating to Bainbridge Island Things to do on Bainbridge Things to do on Bainbridge Island Top bainbridge agent Top Bainbridge island Agent Top Bainbridge Island Buyers Agent winslow way

Categories

  • Activities
  • Beyond Bainbridge
  • Coffee
  • Community
  • Events
  • Happy hour
  • Home Tours
  • Homes
  • Listing
  • Market Trends on Bainbridge Island
  • Miscellaneous blog post
  • Moving
  • Neighborhoods
  • Open Houses
  • Parks
  • Personal
  • Photos
  • Real Estate Business
  • Restaurant
  • Schools
  • Shopping
  • Top 10 Homes
  • Top 5
  • Uncategorized
Jen Pells Logo

206.718.4337
jennifer@jenniferpells.com

249 Winslow Way, East
Ste. #400
Bainbridge Island, WA 98110

Windermere Logo

Windermere Real Estate / BI, Inc.

© 2023 Jen Pells. All Rights Reserved.